So lets say a program has 5 spots.
And they rank us #10 or #20.
Anyone know statistically chances of matching if program ranks you #20 or #10 with 5 spots. Obviously there are tons of variables, unknowns and a bit of luck, but any sort of idea?
Do you seriously want to know the answer at this time when people are stressed out with the match???
@blitz : waaaaaaay too many variables .... with the only obvious fact that the higher you are the better. unscientific analysis is that programs go up to 5x number of positions ... so #20 (or #25) may work. Again, this is just 'street talk'.
Yeah I agree.
But Im sure after decades of matches. ..somebody has analysed yhe stats and come up with a reasonable guesstimate...
But I agree...being ranked by Hopkins as #10 is far different than #10 from a community hosp. In midwest...
depends on the speciality. For peds last year, it was 1:6.6.. i.e if a program has 10 spots, the average peds program would go down to number 66 on it's rank list to fill all it's spots.
you can find all that info on the NRMP website, in the results document.
Sweet. Thx noropeds. Exactly the answer I was looking for.
Any ideas on psych or im?
So a lot of "crappy" peds programs would match an 80th ranked person for a 10 person program. Interesting.
I'm not sure on the exact data for IM and Psych, but all specialities (excluding a few random ones like derm and plastics) were around 5-7 if i remember correctly. And yup... a crappy peds program with 10 residents would probably end up with candidates who they ranked 80-100.
btw, they could still get people they ranked highest - but the last person they get (i.e. their least wanted candidate) willl probably have been ranked 80-100
Great food for thought noropeds.
So for a 10 person program in peds, if you are ranked in top 50 you are pretty much a lock..? (Assuming the program is outside top 10 like chop or chob)