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+--- Thread: is it high time to say ppls not to pursue usmle? - helpmepls (/showthread.php?tid=613083)
0 - ArchivalUser - 09-10-2011
Scene 1
1 program. 1PC. 30 spots. 28 AMG applied and got 28 spots.
Another 4972 IMGs applied. U need to select 2 of them. What would u do?
Scene 2
1 program 5000 IMG applicants.
A total of 4500 programs. Total 15000 IMG applicants.
What does it mean? It means we all r applying to all programs.
If u try to kiss her lips, there r 2 chances. She will slap u or she will enjoy the kiss.
If u try to kiss her sole, she has nothing to enjoy. She will kick you.
[A control on number of applications per applicant is badly needed.]
0 - ArchivalUser - 09-10-2011
@onyekachi do you know the process to get residency in ireland? does USMLE work there?
0 - ArchivalUser - 09-10-2011
@student
so very well said...statistics alone show that odds of securing something in US are better than that in India. As morris81 rightly pointed out - only 10% in india get "matched".
Looks guys - this is a competitive game -- 43% will win and 57% will lose. And the great thing about this game is that it isnt totally random - you control a lot and can dramatically influence your odds by stretching yourself (great scores, great research, etc etc)..
Goodluck!
0 - ArchivalUser - 09-10-2011
hmm pretty interesting discussion. Studentlife123@ I'll appreciate if you can give me the statistic of 20%match rate in early 90's.
But the discussion sounds fair. I mean I just want the thought of everyone and then come to a consensus to inform our Juniors whether it's a viable option to think of USMLE as we docs don't only depend on our luck,our emotions,rather we also assess the situation really existing in the field.
Thank you forum friends for participating.
0 - ArchivalUser - 09-10-2011
http://www.nrmp.org/data/resultsanddata2011.pdf
See table 6.Page 13.Can u see Match rate for Non US IMG 21.6 in 1985?
NOW SEE THIS
Also see fig 4, page 12. Do u see the trend for Non US IMGs? Peak and trough.( pink curve)
See the peak in 1993. Next trough is in 2000. 7 yrs gap.
Next peak 2003. So I predicted last yr that 2010 should be the trough. And match rate will increase afterwards.
Hurray!! I was proved right. Last yr it increased by ~1%. This yr there will be a sharp rise. Do you know why?
Lemme explain, Look 1985. After the trough a small increase in 1986. Then sharp rise in 1987.Then continued for next 5 yrs.
Again look at 1999 to 2000. Slight increase and then 2001 rapid increase. That continued for another 5 yrs.
NOW we are at the bottom and even more luckily last yr there was a predictable upturn.
AND I PREDICT A VERY SHARP RISE OF NON US IMG MATCH RATE IN 2012 MATCH. THE INCREASE WILL BE DRASTIC MOST LIKELY BY ~3%
There will be a continued rise for next 5 yrs. In 2015 the match rate will be high~50%. Dont expect a peak like that of 1992. This peak will most likely be lower than the peak in 2003.
I do not know what will happen to an individual candidate including me. But statistically this will be one of the best match in history and next 3 yrs will be better.
Disclaimer:
This are all estimations. Reality is likely to follow but may or may not.
MTRN
0 - ArchivalUser - 09-10-2011
@helpmepls and others..
I think it is fair to assume that it is easier to secure residency in US if you are ready to compramise on somethings..Here in India we often see people with great ranks not getting what they want..I mean literally. With my ranks in national and state CET, in both within top 2.5 percents, I wasnt sure of getting psychiatry residency at a good institute!! and this is when psychiatry is not much in demand here.. I know of so many med grads who did not even get a rank (
0 - ArchivalUser - 09-10-2011
@hmedicine ,u dont need usmle.u ll take their medical registration exam called tras.the exam is easy.
Cheers
0 - ArchivalUser - 09-10-2011
morris81@
now if you want a slot in AIIMS, it's like you want a Harvard place in USA. You need to think about that too. Right?
0 - ArchivalUser - 09-10-2011
I applied to last year match and did not make it. My creds 97/86/79 all first att. Non caribbean student who needs visa. 14 months of USCE, Spanish.
1) Only the people who got interviews can apply to the NRMP. Last year only 20% of non-caribbean IMGs got ivs...
*** THAT'S THE REASON THE MATCH SUCCESS in 2001 WAS SO HIGH BUT ONLY AMOUNG THE ONES WHO GOT IVS (only 20% of the IMGs non caribbeans went to IVs).
2) There was 1 big wave of ivs in sept through october 15th. Then a small one in the last week of november through the first week of december. MOST OF THE PREMATCHES WENT TO THE CARIBBEAN STUDENTS FROM NOVEMBER TO DECEMBER...
People like me and other friends waiting to hear for prematch offers but they never came.
***** Again: only if you are called for iv can apply to the match. Only the people who applied for the NRMP counted. The were only 20% of the people who applied to ERAS.
**** There are around 2400 positions left for 37000 IMGs after the positions taken by the AMGs.
0 - ArchivalUser - 09-10-2011
a mistake in the last statement. There are 38000 applicants this year and around 19000 AMGs. 21000 IMGS. Around 2500 positions left for IMGs which includes increasing number of caribbeans.
THE PEOPLE WHO PREMATCHED ARE NOT COUNTED IN THE NRMP REPORT BECAUSE THEY DON"T GO TO THE MATCH... Last year 85% of the prematches went to the caribbeans US cit.