u people r so lucky!!!!!!!! - studentlife123

[ArchivalUser]

http://www.nrmp.org/data/resultsanddata2011.pdf

See table 6.Page 13.Can u see Match rate for Non US IMG 21.6 in 1985?
Aren't we in a much better situation in 2011. 40.9%




NOW SEE THIS

See table 6.Page 13.

Also see fig 4, page 12. Do u see the trend for Non US IMGs? Peak and trough.( pink curve)

See these curves and table together.


See the peak in 1991. Next trough is in 1998. 7 yrs gap.
Next peak 2003. So I predicted last yr that 2010 should be the trough. And match rate will increase afterwards.

Hurray!! I was proved right. Last yr it increased by ~1%. This yr there will be a sharp rise. Do you know why?

Lemme explain, Look 1985. After the trough a small increase in 1986. Then sharp rise in 1987.Then continued for next 5 yrs.
Again look at 1998 to 1999. Slight increase and then in 2000 rapid increase. That continued for another 5 yrs.

NOW we are at the bottom and even more luckily last yr there was a predictable upturn.

So the trend is

7 yrs slowly downtrend and
then
1 yr slow upturn
then
5 yr rapid upturn



AND I PREDICT A VERY SHARP RISE OF NON US IMG MATCH RATE IN 2012 MATCH. THE INCREASE WILL BE DRASTIC MOST LIKELY BY ~3 to 5%. IN 1987 the rapid turn was 10%. IN 2000 it was 6%. THIS YR IT WILL BE LOWER THAN 6%.

There will be a continued rise for next 5 yrs. In 2015 the match rate will be high,~50%. Dont expect a peak like that of 1992. This peak will most likely be lower than the peak in 2003.

I do not know what will happen to an individual candidate including me. But statistically this will be one of the best match in history and next 3 yrs will be better.

Disclaimer:
This are all statistical estimations. Reality is likely to follow but may or may not.



MTRN

[ArchivalUser]

You must be making a killing in the stock market!
Time to quit your medical career?

[ArchivalUser]

this is a guess what you are showing!It's the trend. And that time there were not a surge of AMGs like this year.

The number of AMG and Caribbean grads are increasing sharply in the coming years. The first new recruit AMG students to the total pool of AMGs were in 2007 and they will participate in this year match and the number of new med school and new students in USA are on the rise, who will be added to the total participant in the residency application. Right? So how they will be adjusted in the situation where there are no residency slot increase. Definitely by siding away the Non US IMGs.

Currently, IMG numbers are increasing and AMGs and Caribbean grads are too. But my friends, the Residency Slots available are almost static. So even you think rationally, you will get the answer. Still we will have to wait for the 2012 NRMP data.

[ArchivalUser]

I dislike stock market because it seems non productive to me.
Medicine is highly productive.I like it. I am a physician-scientist. Analysis is the basic here. Most people think that mathematics and medicine have some conflict. I never found so.

I hear people say,Its getting harder, harder, harder.........
Actually its just a cycle. We r in a very good point in the cycle.

[ArchivalUser]

1.Every yr there is an increase of AMG number.
2.Every yr there is an increase of residency slot.
Usually number 1 and 2 r the same. So there is no net gain for IMGs entry. No decrease also.

I try to think on statistical rationale. Not on common sense. Like the information "IMG numbers are increasing and Caribbean grads are too" is not correct. IMG applicant count decreased last yr. Why? Let us say frustration.
This frustration will continue to increase for next 5 yrs or so. IMG applicant count will decrease for next 5yrs or so. And IMG match rate will increase.
After 5 yrs some people will say, WOW. SUCH GOOD scopes. They will start Studying USMLE and that will increase IMG applicant count. A gradual decrease in match rate will follow.

So, I would say 2012 is the best yr to start USMLE studies. Because 2015 will be a great match.
Frustrated people will be gone by that time.

[ArchivalUser]

No residency slots are not increasing every year !!!

More than 10 residency hospitals closed down only in NY in last 2 years and they had to shift their residents to other hospitals... 3 in MI closed down..I do not know about other states..

you go to my eras --search program--IM programs in NY-- how many programs do you find ?

there were more than 63 in that list in 2009.. today its around 54...

good luck

[ArchivalUser]

Residency slot increased by ~600 last yr. In last 10 yrs it increased by near abt 5000.
Source: NRMP

[ArchivalUser]

Number of AMGs increased by more than 1000 last year..
Source : NRMP

[ArchivalUser]

More Info :

Increase in residency slots included mainly OB-GY, Anesthesiology, Emergency Medicine and IM and Peds.
So first three are very tough for IMG to get in ( Now please do not give me an example saying someone you know who matched in Emergency Med..it happens but the proportion is negligible).. AMGs too go to IM sharing with IMGs....so what do you think number of slots increased really benefited IMGs ???

secondly, most of the hospitals which closed down in NY were full of IMGs and visa sponsoring.. so again it affected IMGs..

so the picture of increasing slots of residency positions is a mirage...